Bitcoin open interest hits lows not seen since 2024: Is TradFi abandoning BTC?

A month ago, traders were loud. Screens blinked green. Basis trades hummed. Then the floor thinned. Open interest dropped. Liquidity stepped back. The punchline? Aggregate Bitcoin open interest across futures slid roughly 28% in 30 days to about $34 billion as of February 13, 2026—the lowest level since 2024. If you rely on healthy derivatives markets to gauge risk, shifts in Bitcoin open interest aren’t background noise—they’re alarm bells. (fxstreet.com)

Understanding Bitcoin open interest

Bitcoin open interest (OI) is the count of active, not-yet-settled derivatives contracts. In Bitcoin, it’s the live tally of futures and perpetuals that remain open after today’s close. Think of it as the number of chairs occupied at the derivatives table—more chairs filled means more participants with skin in the game. Fewer chairs? Quieter room. Lighter liquidity.

Why do market watchers care so much? Because Bitcoin open interest is one of the cleanest windows into engagement. When it rises alongside price, you’re seeing capital—often leveraged—pile into the move. When it falls, participants are closing positions, being liquidated, or simply choosing to sit out. A drop doesn’t automatically mean “bearish,” but it often signals reduced appetite to take risk. Short punch: conviction cools.

Here’s how this actually works. A miner hedges production with quarterly CME futures. A macro fund runs a cash-and-carry (buy spot, short futures) to clip the basis. A market maker supplies perpetuals liquidity to capture funding spreads. All three inflate Bitcoin open interest. If the basis compresses, funding flips, or volatility spikes, those trades unwind. OI fades.

A surprising detail that trips people up: measuring Bitcoin open interest in dollars vs. in BTC can tell different stories. In recent weeks, the dollar value of OI fell sharply, while Bitcoin open interest measured in BTC terms stayed comparatively steady—meaning part of the decline is simply price translating through the contracts, not an outright collapse in contract count. Still, the directional message is clear: leverage is being pared back. (fxstreet.com)

With that foundation, we can look at what’s actually happening right now—and why shifts in Bitcoin open interest matter for TradFi’s relationship with Bitcoin.

Current state of Bitcoin open interest

Across major venues, Bitcoin derivatives activity surged to records in 2024 before cooling. Bitcoin open interest hit roughly $38 billion in March 2024 at centralized exchanges as traders embraced the rally. By March 2025, aggregate Bitcoin open interest hovered near $36 billion (about 413,000 BTC), before this winter’s steeper reset took it down to ~$34 billion on February 13, 2026. The drawdown also came with billions in forced liquidations, a classic symptom of risk coming out fast. (coinglass.com)

At the same time, snapshots show how quickly Bitcoin open interest can vacillate: in February 2025, futures OI shed about $2.24 billion within hours during a sharp selloff, and in early February 2026 it briefly dipped below $50 billion before sliding further as prices fell. That’s the mechanics of deleveraging in action. (cryptoslate.com)

Impacts of volume? Heavy trading doesn’t always prop up Bitcoin open interest. In stressed weeks, surging volume often accompanies net position closures, not fresh risk-taking. In this downswing, the mix of rising liquidations and cautious re-entry flows in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests speculative derivative exposure is contracting even as some spot buyers selectively rebuild positions. Translation: turnover up, conviction down. (cointelegraph.com)

Comparison snapshot

Date	Open Interest	Trading Volume	Market Sentiment
Mar 29, 2024	~$38B	~$2.3T monthly futures	Risk-on, leverage expands
Mar 5, 2025	~$36B (~413k BTC)	Mixed (post-selloff churn)	Defensive, basis unwinds
Feb 5, 2026	~$50B (intra-day dip below)	Elevated, liquidation-driven	Fragile, de-risking
Feb 13, 2026	~$34B (~502k BTC)	High, >$5B forced liquidations (2 wks)	Risk-off, caution

The big-picture arc is unmistakable: the dollar value of Bitcoin open interest has reset to levels last seen in 2024. The nuance is that BTC‑denominated Bitcoin open interest hasn’t collapsed as much, so some participation persists—but with thinner leverage and tighter risk budgets. (coinglass.com)

The role of TradFi in cryptocurrency markets

Traditional finance (TradFi) gave Bitcoin its deepest pool of regulated liquidity through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and, more recently, spot ETFs—channels that directly shape aggregate Bitcoin open interest on regulated venues. In 2025, CME’s crypto suite posted record participation and a jump in large open interest holders—classic signs of institutional breadth. Then something changed: by mid-2025 the futures premium (the “basis” that fuels cash-and-carry trades) shrank toward cycle lows, compressing returns for hedge funds and prop desks that were a core source of CME OI. That basis squeeze undercut a major pipeline of TradFi engagement—and with it, a chunk of CME’s share of Bitcoin open interest. (cmegroup.com)

By early 2026, the picture looks more ambivalent. CFTC data show CME Bitcoin futures open interest at roughly 26,800 contracts as of February 3, 2026—hardly absent, but smaller than the exuberant peaks. When the basis isn’t paying and volatility spikes, risk committees pull back. Not because Bitcoin vanished, but because the trade’s risk-adjusted return no longer towers over cash yields and other opportunities. That’s how TradFi thinks: where’s the spread worth my VaR—and how much Bitcoin open interest do I really want to warehouse? (cftc.gov)

Another wrinkle: spot ETFs gave institutions a clean, operationally simple path to exposure without managing futures rolls, margin, or collateral haircuts. Flows swung both ways in 2025–26—big outflows during stress, then quick stabs of inflows—but the structural point remains. As ETF rails mature, some capital that once lived in futures migrates to spot wrappers, shifting a slice of aggregate Bitcoin open interest away from derivatives and leaving futures OI as the shock absorber rather than the core holding. In other words, ETFs cannibalize a slice of futures activity when carry is thin. (bloomberg.com)

From our vantage point at COCA—a self-banking non-custodial app for everyday users—the signal is practical: institutional participation now expresses more through simple wrappers (ETFs) and episodic hedges, less through always-on leverage. We see consumers still transacting and allocating, but the balance of liquidity provisioning in futures looks more tactical than structural. That’s a shift worth respecting, not dismissing—and it shows up squarely in Bitcoin open interest.

Answering Your Bitcoin Open Interest Questions

What does a decline in open interest mean for Bitcoin?

A sustained decline in Bitcoin open interest says fewer traders are holding derivative bets overnight. That usually means thinner liquidity around key levels and more jagged price action when shocks hit. In the short run, it can amplify volatility because there’s less resting risk to absorb moves—especially if market makers also cut inventory. In the medium run, low Bitcoin open interest can mark a cleaner slate: fewer weak hands, less forced selling. The catch? If TradFi isn’t refilling the tank via basis trades or structured hedges, the market relies more on spot demand and smaller liquidity providers. That can make rallies feel airier and drawdowns feel heavier. Recent weeks delivered exactly that pattern, complete with multi-billion-dollar liquidation waves. (fxstreet.com)

How does TradFi’s involvement affect Bitcoin?

When banks, hedge funds, and asset managers show up through CME futures and spot ETFs, they add depth, compress spreads, and stabilize funding conditions. In 2025, CME’s institutional participation hit records; the cost-of-carry basis supported robust cash-and-carry flows, which anchored liquidity. When the futures premium narrowed in mid-2025 and again into 2026, those carry trades dulled. As the institutional bid softens, Bitcoin can lose one of its shock absorbers. The result isn’t doom, but a higher-beta market until either basis returns or ETF inflows become steadier—and until Bitcoin open interest rebuilds on regulated venues. (cmegroup.com)

What strategies should investors consider during low open interest periods?

Caution beats bravado. Focus on position sizing and cash buffers. If you’re long-term, prioritize spot exposure over leverage and widen your time horizon. Use metrics that separate noise from signal: track Bitcoin open interest in both USD and BTC terms, watch CME OI and the three-month futures premium (basis), and monitor ETF net flows as a proxy for institutional appetite. A practical move today: set alerts on a data dashboard (e.g., CoinGlass/Glassnode) for “aggregate Bitcoin open interest down/up 10% in a week” and “CME basis above 8% annualized.” Those two tripwires catch most regime shifts without staring at screens all day. (fxstreet.com)

Are there signs of TradFi returning to Bitcoin?

Yes, but they’re intermittent. Watch for three breadcrumbs: a) the CME basis widening back toward high-single digits (carry revives), b) a rise in CME large open interest holders (breadth returns), and c) consistent net inflows into spot ETFs after stress episodes. We’ve already seen short bursts of ETF inflows even during drawdowns—evidence that some allocators buy weakness. The durable turn comes when those signals align for weeks, not days—ideally alongside a visible rebuild in Bitcoin open interest on CME and major exchanges. Until then, expect episodic participation rather than a full-court press. (cointelegraph.com)

Conclusion and potential actions for investors

The thesis in plain terms: the latest slide in Bitcoin open interest isn’t just another squall. It lines up with thinner CME carry, choppier ETF flows, and risk budgets getting tight. That cocktail points to a meaningful—if possibly temporary—reduction in TradFi’s day‑to‑day engagement with BTC. This matters because institutional derivatives activity has historically provided liquidity, tighter spreads, and a buffer during shocks. Remove part of that buffer and both melt-ups and meltdowns can accelerate—especially when Bitcoin open interest is depressed. (fxstreet.com)

Strategic considerations right now: favor clarity over cleverness. If you’re allocating, ask: is my thesis spot-driven or leverage-driven? Track Bitcoin open interest in BTC terms to avoid dollar-distortion during price drops; watch CME OI and basis for real signs of institutional re‑entry; and use ETF net flows as confirmation, not a leading indicator. Before/after to anchor this: Before—chasing rallies with 5x perpetuals when Bitcoin open interest is ballooning. After—accumulating spot on rules-based drawdowns while Bitcoin open interest is depressed, and only reintroducing modest leverage if the basis and CME depth recover.

One example among many: COCA can help everyday users consolidate holdings and payments in a single, secure app. If you do act, consider a simple checklist: maintain an emergency cash buffer, set Bitcoin open interest and basis alerts, and rebalance when either OI rises sharply from troughs or ETF flows turn persistently positive. Our platform and service aim to make those day‑to‑day moves less stressful, but the discipline still has to be yours.

Do this today: build a one‑screen dashboard with four tiles—Aggregate Bitcoin open interest (USD and BTC), CME OI (contracts), 3‑month basis (% annualized), and net ETF flows (daily). If two of the four flip positive for two straight weeks, consider scaling in; if three flip negative, scale back.

🔑 Key Takeaway:

Investors should remain vigilant about shifts in Bitcoin open interest as indicators of market health. When OI, CME basis, and ETF flows weaken together, it often signals thinner liquidity and bigger price swings ahead.

One last note: this is educational, not investment advice. Manage your own risk.

Sourcing notes and context: Aggregate Bitcoin open interest fell to ~$34B on Feb 13, 2026, the lowest since 2024, with ~$5.2B in recent liquidations; OI in BTC terms stayed comparatively steady—signs of leverage compression rather than full disengagement. Earlier peaks and subsequent drawdowns are documented across datasets from CoinGlass/Glassnode, while CME’s 2025 records and mid-2025 basis compression frame how institutional activity can wax and wane. (fxstreet.com)

Call to action: If you want a calmer way to keep score, set those Bitcoin open interest and basis alerts now—and revisit your allocation rules before the next volatility spike.